Covid and Festivals

Covid and the Boardmasters Festival

I have stopped posting on Covid, but this was originally posted on 30th August 2021, not long after the Boardmasters festival. Boardmasters is just beginning now, with reports of 58.000 visitors, so I reckon a repost is justified.

It is not so easy to access local data now (surprise surprise!) but I am aware of a number of personal acquaintances having Covid in the last few weeks.

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The story of how Cornwall's Covid new case rate rose from being almost the lowest in in the country to the highest in the country in three months.

Covid cases in Cornwall 2021

May 17th.
The UK Government began easing restrictions in England. At that time Englands cases were running at 227 new cases per day.  In Cornwall the figure was 52.

June 1st
The new cases began to creep up in England to 334. But the Cornwall figure dropped to 38.

June 14th 
Thousands of visitors from all over the world descended on Cornwall for the G7 summit bringing the virus with them. New cases in the UK had doubled to 750 but Cornwall's cases go up almost thirty fold to 1003.  The government decide to delay the planned easing of restrictions for 4 weeks.

June 18th
Before the cases have a chance to drop, the UEFA European cup matches begin and pubs crowd out for the the England matches.  The UK rate is 883 and Cornwall is 1477.

July 21st
10 days after the cup final, England new cases peak at an increase of  six fold to 5374. Although just as many people in Cornwall watch the footie in pubs, fewer go to actual matches.  So Cornwalls figure only goes up by 2.5 times to 3850.  Unbelievably, the government removed all restrictions on July 19th.

August 1st
Cases drop to 2917 in England and 2505 in Cornwall. But this is the beginning of the tourist season, and with foreign travel restrictions in place, Cornwall gets very crowded.

August 7th
In one week cases in Cornwall increase almost 40% to 3442.  England's cases do not change appreciably

August 22nd
One week after the Boardmasters festival, (11th - 15th August)  Cornwall's new cases reach 8336 per week, well over twice the England rate of 3302.
New cases in Cornwall were at 3844 per week per million of population on the day Boardmaster's Festival started, and 4500 higher a week after it closed, (figures from the government site).
Raw case numbers show 5,556 new cases in Cornwall between the start of Boardmasters and 1 week after it closed, but the media and the council only acknowledge 800 in Cornwall and 4700 country wide.

FAKE NEWS HELPS NOBODY.

"Coincidentally" England's case rate peaked on 23rd August showing 313,000 new cases since the start of Boardmaster's.  The festival undoubtedly contributed significantly to this figure and was a country wide super spreader

August 27th
Bank holiday surge in tourists. Cornwall to be Enhanced Response Area to tackle Covid-19 cases. 

The support is provided for a 5-week period, and includes the option to deliver extra testing within targeted areas, the provision of logistical support to maximise vaccine uptake, and further help for local campaigns.

August 28th

1 in 50 people in parts of Newquay have Covid.  Cornwall Pride Parade in Newquay. Cornwall Folk Festival in Wadebridge.

August 29th
Rainbowfest in Newquay.

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Summary

The virus got a hold in Cornwall when the G7 conference was held. Some of those who caught it will have unknowingly passed it on to others who got together to watch the England matches on TV.
Before the numbers could fall, hoards of visitors descended upon Cornwall after all restrictions were removed by the Government.  Cornwall became a melting pot and cross contamination occurred in the crowded pubs and events, and in particular the Boardmaster's festival with 15,000 attendees with zero restrictions.  The huge spike in Cornwalls rate also contributed to the spike in the UKs rate.
Other than possible providing increased testing and opportunity for vaccine jabs no actions are being taken by the government.

Predictions

Cases will gradually fall in Cornwall as the visitor numbers go down, but due to foreign travel restrictions the number will still be higher than normal for the time of year right up to winter.  Cornwall is therefore unlikely to regain it's status as a low Covid area.  Cases in the UK overall will not fall appreciably, and there may be a substantial increase follow the restarting of schools (as has already happened in Scotland).
Last year there was a huge increase in cases as we went into winter, but things have changed substantially since then.  
On the plus side; we now have a high percentage of the population vaccinated. Only about 0.4% of people who catch covid and up dying. Last year it was about 2%
On the negative side; we are now dealing with a different and more contagious variant and Covid cases are thirty times higher than this time last year. The government has pledged no more lockdowns or restrictions. New strains are emerging continuously.

It will probably get worse as we head into Christmas, and maybe much worse.

 

The Future of Artificial Intelligence

The Logical Destiny of AI

Let’s do a little extrapolating from the present to the next few hundred years based on developments over the last few years.

• We are sending automatic unmanned probes into space.
• Artificial intelligence is now advanced and its development is accelerating
• We are unlikely to send many human beings on long open ended trips with no return.

Combine these together and it becomes very probable that we will send highly intelligent machines into space to collect data and send it back to earth.

These machines will be capable of making decisions based on the circumstances they are in. Some will leave the solar system and head off into deep space for journeys that may take tens of thousand of years.  

Humans, and probably any naturally occurring and evolving organisms, are simply not suited for this type of travel. Computers are eminently suitable. Needing only electrical power they could be run from a small nuclear source and can switch to a low power mode. Even a “thinking” being could survive the loneliness and the isolation if they could “compress time” by reducing their internal clock. A ten thousand year journey could appear as a day or two!

So we send a intelligent probes to nearby stars, and the journey takes hundreds or even thousand of years.

During this time it is quite possible that humanity may cease to exist – this could be due to  disasters such as comets, asteroids, super volcanoes, plagues, wars, severe climate change etc etc. In that case the only residue of our civilization would be the spacecrafts we had sent.

Now, how many times has this happened in the past in the galaxy? How many orphaned artificial life sources are roaming the universe?

Well I don’t know the answer either, but I do know in an almost infinite universe the answer is certainly NOT zero. If we ever make contact with other intelligences, it is much more likely that the intelligence will reside as programs in alien machines, and not as little green men.

It may well be that it is peak of humanity’s destiny to join them. Their organic ancestors (that's us) will be as remote to them as our amphibian ancestors are to us.

Now extend the extrapolation far into the future. More and more organic based civilizations will develop, produce AI type of descendants, then die off. 

It is the destiny of the universe to be populated by Artificial Intelligence.

Open Mic Etiquette

Not be a minute. I’ll just tune up.

Can I have the music stand please. It’s a bit low for me, can you raise it please?

Now what will I sing? I Oh I know. It’s in my book here. Now let me find it. Sorry about this I had it a few minutes ago.

Right, here we go (Strums a chord) Hang on that’s in a different tuning, not be a minute. Has anyone a tuner I could borrow?

(Spends two minutes tuning his guitar)

Right, here we go. No idea who wrote this, I got it off an old LP. I must remember to give it back Ha Ha.

(Finally begins with a 60 second guitar instrumental introduction before he starts singing)

Oops – I can’t sing in that key! Anyone got a capo I can borrow? Right here we go again.

Damn I can’t read my own writing. I’ll need my specs. I’ll just get them out of my jacket – not be a tick.  Oh hi Sid, how are you doing? Haven’t seen you for a while.

Here we go.

(Begins again – full guitar intro again – and finally does the song. Huge applause from his friends at the back – all of whom chatted to each other throughout his song.

Thank you so much. I’ve had a request, but I’m still singing. Ha Ha.

Now, what next. I know – its in my folder here somewhere. Got it.

Oh I need a harmonica for this one. It’s in my guitar case, not be a tick.

Right here we go (Strums a chord). Ha ha, not in this tuning I’ll not be a minute.

(Retunes his guitar then finally begins with a 60 second guitar introduction then plays a note on the harmonica)

Oops I’ve put my harmonica in the rack upside down. Ha Ha. I’ll just fix that.

This is called Crossroad blues by the way. No idea who wrote it. Anybody know?

(Begins again – full intro once more and finally does the song. Huge applause from his friends again – none of whom really heard it)

Thank you, thank you. Pardon? I thought we got three songs? I’ve only done two. Oh OK then.

(Whips the lead out of his guitar making a noise like a shotgun come out of the speakers. Sits down with his mates and talks loudly and continually for the rest of the evening).

The guy above is fictional (any resemblance to any person, living or dead etc.etc), but I have seen all of the antics above at some time or other in open mics.

The standard of the performers at open mics is very variable but the audiences are usually very kind. It is nice if you are kind to them too. Here are a few guidelines – all common sense really.

It’s worth having a visit to any new open mic before you commit to play, even if its just a quick look before you get your instrument out of the car. The styles vary very much. That said, most will accommodate any genre, but you may feel more comfortable at some than others.

Have your instrument in tune before you get in front of the audience. Tuners are cheap, and you can usually tune up while someone is playing. YOU don’t have to hear the strings as you pluck them, the tuner will use the vibrations and no-one will hear you above the PA.

If your instrument has a pickup and it needs a battery make sure the battery is in good condition – and keep a spare in your bag.

Don’t get up and say “Now, what will I do…” Decide what you are going to do before you get up.

If you sing with while playing an instrument, then start in the right key. Make a note of the key or capo position that you use for that song.

If the organizer says 3 songs, he is probably assuming you will take 10 minutes. Do a brief hello and maybe compliment the previous performer. Do your songs with a brief pause between (its really nice to acknowledge the song writer). Don’t chat to your friends in the audience, don’t tune up, don’t change tunings in short set, or rummage through a huge folder of songs. The extra time you take may prevent another performer playing at all, as time get short at the end of the night.

If the organizer says 15 minutes – he means 15 minutes including your hook up time, tuning, and chat. The next performer will be expecting to start 15 minutes after you stand up – not 15 minutes after you finally start.

Don’t look at the mic when you are singing. You will look cross eyed.

Don’t bother fiddling with your controls on your pickup. Put them in the middle position. The sound man will over-ride anything you do so NEVER UPSET THE SOUND MAN.

When the sound man is setting up, play your instrument slightly loud. It is my experience they usually set the instrument volume to be the same, or louder than the vocals. Then they walk away for the rest of your set. You can then play normally and your voice can still be heard over your instrument.

If there is no monitor (there usually isn’t) don’t assume that your performance sounds the same to the audience (in front of the speakers) as it does to you (behind the speakers). Trust the sound man.

In a quiet venue you may be able to have the mic a foot (30cm) or even more from your mouth. But in a noisy venue you will need to get your mouth a couple of centimetres from the mic at most. It’s all to do with a phenomena called “gain before feedback”. Basically the soundman can only turn up the amplification so far before that horrible feedback noise takes over. The only way to get more volume after that point is to increase the volume of sound going into the mic. Get closer to it – similar to talking into a friends ear so he can hear you above the surrounding noise.

Take your own guitar lead. Some open mics expect this.

If you must have the words and chords, have them on a couple of sheets or a small folder. (Tablets and mobile phones are becoming increasingly popular too) A music stand is usually provided, but they won’t take a big thick folder. A clothes peg, bulldog clip or fridge magnet may help to stop your sheets blowing away.

Don’t expect people in the bar to listen, or even be quiet. They have a perfect right to chat to each other in a pub – that’s what pubs are for. Having said that, as a performer, have some consideration for other performers and don’t make to much noise when they are singing and playing.

Have a few extra songs in hand – I went to one in Betty Nichols in Kirkcaldy and the two performers in front of me sang three of the songs I had been planning to do.

When you are finished don’t remove the lead from your instrument until the sound man says its OK. You can damage the speakers.

Have fun – you may get a free pint from the bar, but not always (or even often!). Chat to other performers (ideally between songs), see where they play, pass information about.

A few words for the Sound Man

The standard of the sound man (it usually is a man, but it is sometimes a woman – but I’ll use the term “sound man” as it’s shorter and sounds better than “sound person”) also varies greatly from open mic to open mic. The worst I have seen experienced simply pointed to the mixer and said “there you go”. Most are much better. Here are the habits of good sound men:-

THEY START ON TIME. If they advertise an open mic to start at 8:30pm. The first act (it may well be the soundman himself) starts to play (not do a sound check – that has been done already) at 8:30

They have the mixer in front of the performers where they are listening to the same sound the audience is hearing. If they can’t get the mixer to the middle of the audience they, or their assistant goes to that point and then adjusts the mixer till it sounds right.

They use their ears to get they balance right – not the LEDs on the mixer. They know that if they just use the LEDs the instruments will overpower the vocals.

They do not ask the performer to be the judge of the balance. Behind the mic is the worst place to get a feel of the overall balance.

In small to medium venues they keep the mixer’s PAN controls centred. They realise that all of the audience wants to here all of the performers.

They know that if a performer asks for an adjustment to a setting (eg – can I have a bit more guitar please) he means the monitors – not the main speakers. The performer cannot judge how it sounds from the audiences position.

If one singer can’t be heard, or a guitar is drowning the vocals and other instruments – it is usually the sound man who is at fault.

If they do not have monitors they try to position the speakers so that the performers can hear something of their own performance above the noise of the audience talking.

A good soundman is a great asset for any performer.  A bad one can discourage less confident musicians from ever playing again. 

The Housing Trap

Why aren't we building more houses?

Well, let us start off by imagining the situation if we were building lots of council houses. These would have restrictions of course. Firstly they would NOT be for sale, neither would they be available to anyone as a second home.  So what are the consequences?

Houses would be much cheaper, simply by the mechanism of supply and demand.  Rents are much lower.  A private landlord must compete with council house rents and mortgage repayments on cheaper houses.

Immigrants, who we desperately need to work in the NHS would have places to live almost immediately, and NOT at the expense of locals - there are enough house to go round.

This was the case back in the 1970s.  A typical house cost around three years wages (Now it is seven and a half years)

Why won't we build lots of council houses now?

Do you have your own house?  

How would you feel if the council started to build houses close to yours, at a similar standard to yours, but let out at half of your mortgage payments? 

When you sell your house you will not get what you paid for it. You will be in a state of "negative equity".  Due to the stupid way our banks work you will find it difficult or impossible to move house. Even if you have to move house for a better paid job to pay your mortgage!

Are you a landlord?  

Are you happy for your tenants when they move out into cheaper accommodation supplied by the state. You bought your properties when the prices were high and you need the income from them to pay off the loans you took out to buy them.  

The establishment has managed to trap you in this position by restricting the number of house available. You have bought at a high price and you really don't want to see the value of your house fall.  After all it's your major investment.

So you will not vote for any government who says they will bring house prices down. But building more houses will bring them down!

Margarets Thatcher's dream of "A nation of home owners" has come about. There is no easy way back.

So the current situation of the poorest people in our country being unable to afford a house or struggling to pay for food after paying rent or mortgage, and no place for migrant workers to live will continue for the foreseeable future.

Fining Pieces of Paper

What Harm have these poor pieces of paper done you?

The government has just fined Southern water £90,000,000 for pouring sewage into the sea.

The Health and Safety Executive site is filled with instances of companies being fined for breaking regulations.

We have fined banks;  we have  fined hospitals;  we have fined network rail

This is ludicrous beyond belief. Corporations or companies are NOT negligent or dishonest.  They are pieces of paper with writing on. PEOPLE are negligent and dishonest. And in these cases, the people are usually high up the tree, and their crime is almost always not taking their role seriously and ignoring their own staff at the bottom of the organization.

But who pays the fine? Either the public, or if the fine actually effects the companies finances then cuts will be made at the BOTTOM of the tree.

The ONLY deterrent is a prison sentence for those found responsible. A fine has no effect on a person with a substantial personal fortune, and access to almost unlimited funds from their organization.

Somewhere in the organization, someone has withheld the funds, or not allocated resources and the result is either breaking the law, or a tragedy. That person is never identified, will probably keep their job, and their salary, and their bonus, and their pension. It’s unfair, and just plain stupid.

The threat (and actuality) of a few months, weeks, or even days in jail together with the subsequent criminal record, and increased sentences for subsequent offences would have an immediate effect on directors, executives, and managers behaviour.

So why don’t we simply SEND THE BUGGERS TO JAIL.

In such cases someone MUST go to jail.  If the culprit or culprits cannot be found then it must be the head of the organization.  It is his job to keep the organization on the straight and narrow.  He has failed and its up to him to find the reasons. If he can’t, then he has failed again and that warrants the jail sentence.  When he gets out, he will make damn sure it doesn’t happen again, and his friends will take more care too.

Addenda 

13/01/2023

And a piece of paper takes the hit for Trump dodging taxes.

10/06/23

And another piece of paper has been fined £2.1m as for dumping raw sewage into the sea. The CEO of South West Water, Susan Davy, is paid over £400,000 per year and usually gets over £1,000,000 in bonuses. She decided not to take it this year, but she is paying out £112m out to the shareholders.  (I would guess she is a major shareholder). All the “outraged” local MP is calling for is resignations.  

No!

SEND THE BUGGERS TO JAIL. 

Only a Fraction

“Only a fraction“. It’s a phrase that is in very common use. What does it mean?

A quarter, an eighth, fifteen sixteenths or maybe seven sevenths?  Or is it even vulgar, like twelve tenths?  

After a long investigation, taking only a fraction of the time, and using only a fraction of the resources that a prestigious university would use, I have found the answer.

Actually there are two meanings

1. The writer or speaker does not have a clue about the real figure, and can’t be bothered to find out.
2. The writer or speaker does not want you to know the real figure.

 I can now state categorically, and without fear of contradiction that:

• Only a fraction of our MPs are not imbeciles.
• Only a fraction of our security services are not in the pay of the Kremlin
• Only a fraction of our journalists are not employed directly or indirectly by Donald Trump.
• Only a fraction of our energy payments do not go straight into the personal bank accounts of the directors and shareholders of Shellenergy.

It’s a handy phrase, and one that can be used, if you are bothered, (only a fraction are actually bothered)  without actually telling lies.

Everyone's a Liar

Why does everyone Lie?

This post was originally posted on 2nd April 2020, but todays events are simply staggering.

Boris Johnson, a consumate liar to the core, is now in danger of losing his job after been proven to have lied and to parliament which breaks the ministerial code. This IS a resignation matter. But Johnson’s response is not to resign, but instead to change the ministerial code.

It’s so simple – commit a crime with a mandatory sentence – change the law – no sentence.  OK, it’s not an actual crime, or a sentence but the principal is the same.  This turd of a man thinks that because he lies all the time, so does everyone else – so what’s the big deal?

What is even more outrageous is that his party still supports him.  This says more about the non existent integrity of his supporters than it says about him.

Craig Murray’s in depth (by my standards anyway) post on the effects of media lies is a fascinating read.

The original post continues:-

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I got a letter from my bank this morning telling me my email was wrong and asking me to log onto the site and correct it.

I logged on and my email was correct!

I tried to find a contact email but they only communicate by phone, Facebook messenger or twitter!! (yes hard to believe)

So I contacted them via messenger.  Below is a copy of the conversation (with personal details removed)

09:53

Hello I got a letter from you saying my email is wrong. It is not wrong. The letter asks me to update my contact details. But they are all correct. I do not want to phone you and wait for ages for someone to pick up the phone. Please advise.

Thanks for messaging us. If you haven’t, then please provide your name, date of birth, postcode and, if it’s insurance, your policy number and we’ll get back to you. How we handle your data is available at

[redacted address]

Hi, thanks for getting in touch. You don’t need to call us, this is a standard letter that is sent out to customers to make sure we have the correct details on file. Apologies for any inconvenience – Fred

The letter said “We recently tried to contact you about your account. However the message couldn’t be delivered because it appears we don’t have a correct email on file for you” So this was a lie?

We’re not saying it’s a lie. We send these letters out to make sure we have the correct details on file – Fred

No Fred. It’s not true. If it’s not a mistake it’s a lie. Did you try to contact me by email about my account or not?

We don’t communicate via email. If you would like to discuss this further, I’d recommend calling our team, available Monday to Friday 8am-10pm, Saturday and Sunday 9am-5pm, and they’ll be able to discuss this further – Fred

It gets worse Fred. If you don’t communicate by email why do you need my email address?

If you opted in for marketing preferences, then we’d communicate via email – Fred

 OK Fred, we’ll leave it there, but routinely telling lies to customers is not a good business practice. If you wanted to check an email – send one and get a reply. Don’t send out untruthful letters making them waste their time and yours. Please pass my comments up the tree.

What struck me is that the letter sent out by a bank to a customer contains a lie.  And this is sent to all customers!

The deluge of fake news and out and out lies from politicians, the media, and in particular social media is turning us into a society of automatic liars.

We Lie too

Who reading this, has not checked a box saying they have read the terms and conditions without actually looking at the 28 page closely typed document at all?

We know that newspapers, politicians, churches, social media, the police, etc.etc. all lie. Is there anyone we can trust at all?  Certainly, the further up the social and power tree we look the more lies we find.

OK it’s not all politicians, or churches, or police personnel, but how the hell are we supposed to tell the difference?

Do we care?  Donald Trump and Boris Johnson have been proven to be consummate liars but they have been elected to the highest positions of power democratically.

When people can’t distinguish between what is true and what isn’t then they will tend to gravitate to what they would like to be the truth.  

And then when other people gravitate to their different version, then they must be stupid, or have ulterior motives for saying they believe the lies.

And then arguments or even insurrections and revolutions start.

Education.

The Education Gravy Train

This is a follow on from a post three years ago “Education education education” Not much has changed.

This caught my eye. David Willets, a former Tory MP and a current Tory Lord says that we need to increase the number of places at University to avoid our children getting low paid jobs.

Now, is he an idiot?  Does he think that going to University stops anyone from getting low paid job? If 50% of the population go to Uni, but 75% of the population are required for low paid jobs (someone has to do them) then half of the people in low paid jobs will simply be degree qualified, but with a huge debt.  So is he an idiot?

No, he’s not an idiot, but he may have a little self interest?

He is currently:-

a visiting professor at King’s College London where he works with the Policy Institute at King’s,

a visiting professor at the Cass Business School,

a board member of the Institute for Fiscal Studies

and a visiting fellow at Nuffield College, Oxford.

On 9 February 2018, the University of Leicester announced they had elected David Willetts as successor to Bruce Grocott to become their new chancellor.[28]

As the minister responsible for universities, Willetts was an advocate and spokesperson for the coalition government’spolicy of increasing the cap on tuition fees in England and Wales from £3,225 to £9,000 per year.[14][15]

In November 2013, Willetts announced the sale of student loans to Erudio Student Loans – a debt collection consortium – removing £160m from public debt but ignoring the implications for former students.[16]

From Wikipedia

I think it would be fair to say that he has a bit of a vested interest in increasing the number of students, which will call for an increase in the number of lecturers and therefore more responsibility for the governing bodies of Universities and therefore more money for them. 

As always, particularly with the Tories, follow the money.

Every extra student brings in an extra £9000 a year to the Uni’s and most leave with a huge debt burden. When they enter the job market, the majority will find they cannot command a higher than average salary, and they are way behind their more enterprising friends who have been earning and building a career for the last three years and have no debts.

But David Willard and his ilk won’t give a damn.

DATA

 I was an electronic engineer for most of my working life.  During all of that time I used the word “data” lots of times, every day.

It was never a plural word as it seems to be used now. Neither was it a singular word.  It was used in a similar way to “water” or “hay” or “air”.  As in:-

• The water comes along this pipe – the data comes along these wires.
  NOT the water come or the data come.
• The hay is stored in the barn – the data is stored on the hard drive.
  NOT the hay are stored or the data are stored
• The air is compressed – the data is manipulated
  NOT the air are compressed or the data are manipulated.

It was an mass or uncountable noun.

We did not use the word datum to mean a piece of data.  The word datum was usually a point on a graph. A piece of data in electronics is a “bit” or a “byte”.  In non technical English it could be a word or a sentence or a number or something very vague like a thought or a belief.

When did it all change? And when was it decided that we all must use Latin plurals and start referring to football stadia.  What next?  Will a box of of magnum classic ice creams become magna?  Will we see croci (crocuses) growing in the garden.

When will people stop being bloody pretentious??

Education, Education, Education

Tony Blair’s goal was to get 50% of the population into further education. This has been taken to mean 50% of the population will have a degree. Which is great for them, because that will put them in the top 10% of earners. Errrrr……

50% of the population in the top 10% of earners is quite a target. And a nice spin-off is that it gets an extra 1.5 million off the unemployed register.

When I did my degree around 50 years ago, only around 5% of the population went to Uni. Although it was a privilege to go to Uni, I did not come from a privileged background (my father was a bus conductor, mother a cleaner). But this was the first generation when it was not too hard for bright kids to get to Uni.

I supported myself with jobs, and I got a small grant (not a loan) and I lived very simply and did not expect too much. I left Uni without debt. Over my career, I have been paid more than the average wage for most of it, paid more than the average taxes and contributed much more than average in real terms to the economy of the country (I worked in manufacturing).

The country got a good deal from me, and probably most others who went to Uni at that time. The country also got a good deal from many of my friends who did not go to Uni, but took apprenticeships, studied for other qualifications and became electricians, plumbers, fitters, joiners, etc. Many also attained degree level jobs without a degree simply by becoming excellent in their chosen field.

Now the target is 50% of kids to go to Uni. TEN TIMES the number compared to 50 years ago. That means we need ten times the number of lecturers, ten times the number of seats in UNI, ten times the admin staff etc.

Ten times the cost? Well No! That is not the way that organizations work. If you increase the number of front line staff (lecturers) you also have to increase the number of their managers, and their managers, and their managers. But these higher level managers are now responsible for many more people and higher budgets so they are paid much higher salaries. (Another niche for fat cats)

The target is for this 50% of the population to start work when they leave college. That is usually at twenty one years old. Forty years ago, most, maybe 85% (my guess) started working at sixteen. So the rest of the productive population has to support 50% for a further 5 years. Or do they?

NOW students don’t get grants, they get loans. This is simply because the country cannot afford to give grants to 50% of the population. We can however afford to pay around 2000 people in the Student Loan Company, an organisation with history of incompetence and questionable financial dealing at the highest levels. (More fat cats)

The loans get paid back in two ways. Firstly when the student gets a paid job he pays taxes. Of course with 50% of the population in the same boat, the average student will just get a job with an average salary and so pay average taxes, which may not cover the cost of his education. But he gets saddled with surtax to pay his loan back. But, not all students will get jobs, and of those that do many will be low paid and so the surtax or even income tax may not be paid.

SO the government is handing out loans which can’t be repaid! This has been proven conclusively by the banks to be a very bad thing.

So should the government is cut back on education? This would generate howls of protest from the Universities (understandably – many staff will lose their jobs) and from the wannabe students whose older friends and siblings got to Uni before the cuts. Also the unemployment rate would soar. So whether or not they should is irrelevant – they won’t.

We have a Tory government, and they will do what they always do and base it on the ability to pay. The well off families will send their kids to the prestige universities, whilst the rest will go to the average Unis leaving with about the same chance of a job as someone with a few GCE “O” levels 40 years ago. The difference is though, that they are now in debt to the government and if they do get a job that pays well, even if it has nothing to do with their degree, they will have to pay the loan back, with interest in their taxes. Recently the government has frozen the threshold salary at which graduates must start repaying the loan. This is in contravention of the conditions on which the students took out the loan, so the government assumes that changing the contract after it is signed is perfectly acceptable.

We’ll gradually slip back to a low percentage going to the prestige Unis – perhaps down to 5% as it was when I went. The remaining 45% will go to Unis who fill the role played by the colleges who taught to ONC, and HNC levels. The 5% will comprise the children of rich folk and a few token brilliant students from poor families.

I’d like to blame the Tories for this, but it was started by New Labour. Both parties plus the Lib Dems have ran with it. It has been a well co-ordinated joint effort. Education is a public right. But like most public services nowadays (water, energy, transport, communications, even prisons) it has been commandeered by the rich to make them even richer.